6/2/2020, 12:29 pm

COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
I've done some calculations and I wanted to run the numbers by you for comment.
I. The Data Set:
- Current U.S. Total Population estimate for 2020: 341,387,000
- U.S. Confirmed cases of Covid-19 as of 0800 on 6/2/2020: 1,811,277
- U.S. Deaths attributed to Covid-19 as of same date/time: 105,147
- U.S. Recovered confirmed cases as of same date/time: 458,231
- U.S. Number of people tested for Covid-19 as of same date/time: 17,340,682
II. Crunching the numbers:
- Percent of U.S. total population tested for Covid-19: 5.08% (17,340,682 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
- Percent of those tested who tested positive for Covid-19: 10.4% (1,811,277 divided by 17,340,682, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
- Percent of total U.S. population that have tested positive for Covid-19: 0.53% (1,811,277 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
- Percent of those tested positive for Covid-19 whose death is attributed to Covid-19: 5.8% (105,147 divided by 1,811,277, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
- Percent of those tested positive for Covid-19 now listed as recovered: 25% (458,231 divided by 1,811,277. multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
- Percent of total U.S. population dead with death attributed to Covid-19: 0.03% (105,147 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
III. Questions, caveats, and concerns:
- How reliable are the number of dead attributed to Covid-19? For example, "April 17, 2020 -- If a loved one dies in Colorado, Ohio, Connecticut, and other states, and COVID-19 is suspected but there is no confirmed diagnosis, that death will now be included in the state's death toll. But in Alabama, even those who had a lab-confirmed case may not be counted." https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020041 ... ath-counts
- Who is getting tested? Is it reasonable to assume that the majority of people tested for Covid-19 are those experiencing some form of symptoms of the disease?
- Is there any reliable way to estimate the number of people who have contracted Covid-19 and are/were either asymptomatic or who experience/experienced symptoms not warranting medical attention?
- Given these numbers, has the lethality of the disease been overblown? How do they compare with figures from other viral diseases?
- Is there any data available yet as to whether or not having had the disease confers future immunity to it?
- I have read articles concerning the potentially dire long-term effects Covid-19 may have on survivors. Do our medical brothers have any opinions as to the reliability of these projections at this point in the progression of the disease?
- Do these numbers justify the draconian measures taken to prevent the spread of the disease?