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Out of Character: Numbers for Your Consideration

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COVID_Hopkins.jpg
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I got to playing around with the figures on the Johns Hopkins Corona data and U. S. Census data.

COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

I've done some calculations and I wanted to run the numbers by you for comment.

I. The Data Set:

  • Current U.S. Total Population estimate for 2020: 341,387,000
  • U.S. Confirmed cases of Covid-19 as of 0800 on 6/2/2020: 1,811,277
  • U.S. Deaths attributed to Covid-19 as of same date/time: 105,147
  • U.S. Recovered confirmed cases as of same date/time: 458,231
  • U.S. Number of people tested for Covid-19 as of same date/time: 17,340,682

II. Crunching the numbers:

  • Percent of U.S. total population tested for Covid-19: 5.08% (17,340,682 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
  • Percent of those tested who tested positive for Covid-19: 10.4% (1,811,277 divided by 17,340,682, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
  • Percent of total U.S. population that have tested positive for Covid-19: 0.53% (1,811,277 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
  • Percent of those tested positive for Covid-19 whose death is attributed to Covid-19: 5.8% (105,147 divided by 1,811,277, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
  • Percent of those tested positive for Covid-19 now listed as recovered: 25% (458,231 divided by 1,811,277. multiplied by 100 to generate percent)
  • Percent of total U.S. population dead with death attributed to Covid-19: 0.03% (105,147 divided by 341,387,000, multiplied by 100 to generate percent)

III. Questions, caveats, and concerns:

  1. How reliable are the number of dead attributed to Covid-19? For example, "April 17, 2020 -- If a loved one dies in Colorado, Ohio, Connecticut, and other states, and COVID-19 is suspected but there is no confirmed diagnosis, that death will now be included in the state's death toll. But in Alabama, even those who had a lab-confirmed case may not be counted." https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020041 ... ath-counts
  2. Who is getting tested? Is it reasonable to assume that the majority of people tested for Covid-19 are those experiencing some form of symptoms of the disease?
  3. Is there any reliable way to estimate the number of people who have contracted Covid-19 and are/were either asymptomatic or who experience/experienced symptoms not warranting medical attention?
  4. Given these numbers, has the lethality of the disease been overblown? How do they compare with figures from other viral diseases?
  5. Is there any data available yet as to whether or not having had the disease confers future immunity to it?
  6. I have read articles concerning the potentially dire long-term effects Covid-19 may have on survivors. Do our medical brothers have any opinions as to the reliability of these projections at this point in the progression of the disease?
  7. Do these numbers justify the draconian measures taken to prevent the spread of the disease?
Let me know what you think.

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Thanks to the boys down in AgitProp for the formatting and illustrations. The "Out of Character" clip art selection is quite apropos for the subject at hand.


 
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